Why New York Needs Issue Polling—And What It Reveals About Congestion Pricing
Our politics has a murky understanding of public opinion. I'm on a mission to find out what New Yorkers truly think.
New York City’s political landscape is shaped by those who speak the loudest. The laws made by our City Council, the resolutions passed by community boards, and local news coverage are disproportionately influenced by a small, engaged, and often unrepresentative subset of the population. Meanwhile, the vast majority of New Yorkers—who rely on the city’s services, transit systems, and housing policies—are often unheard. This disconnect skews policy outcomes and reinforces the interests of those who already wield influence.
As someone who serves on a community board, I’ve seen this dynamic firsthand. Compared to the average New Yorker, the voices in the room tend to be older, more conservative, more likely to own a home, and far more likely to own a car. Elected officials often hear more from the loudest and most organized constituencies than from the public at large. Inevitably, this flows through to policy and the laws that shape our lives.
That’s why polling is essential. By directly soliciting the opinions of randomly sampled voters, it's possible to hear from a much more representative spectrum of New Yorkers. While this issue polling is commonly done on the national level, the specific opinions of NYC residents are rarely studied. Several pollsters report on voting intentions, but there's a dearth of research on policy areas like housing, transportation, and the public realm.1 With good polling, however, it's possible for politicians and policymakers to more clearly hear the true preferences of their constituents — and better craft government to serve us all.
Introducing the Third Avenue Institute
Seeing this gap in our politics, I decided to take action. Rather than waiting for someone else to address the issue, I realized that anyone can conduct an opinion poll—you just have to roll up your sleeves and do it!
That’s why I’ve founded the Third Avenue Institute, a nonpartisan nonprofit research organization dedicated to regularly polling New Yorkers on key policy issues that shape the city’s present and future. I’ll be driving the Institute’s research program alongside my writing here at Sidewalk Chorus (and, of course, my day job!).
Unveiling our first poll: What New Yorkers Really Think About Congestion Pricing
To put this theory into practice, the Third Avenue Institute conducted a survey in January 2025 on one of the city’s most controversial contemporary policies: congestion pricing. The poll results tell a fascinating story about who benefits from the policy and who opposes it.
Overall, New York City voters are evenly split: 45% support congestion pricing, while 46% oppose it.
But when we break down the numbers, clear patterns emerge.
Transit users, pedestrians, and cyclists strongly support congestion pricing. Two-thirds of this group (66%) back the policy, recognizing that reduced traffic congestion makes the city more livable and helps fund public transportation improvements.
Drivers, unsurprisingly, oppose the tolls. A full 79% of drivers oppose congestion pricing. Their frustration is unsurprising: they’re the ones paying the tolls, even if they're also the beneficiaries of reduced congestion.
Manhattanites are the most supportive, while outer-borough residents are more resistant. A majority of Manhattan residents (57%) support congestion pricing, while opposition is strongest in the Bronx and Staten Island, where car dependence is higher.
These results illustrate a key reality: congestion pricing is popular among those who experience its benefits, but deeply unpopular among those who bear its costs. A crucial open question is whether support will increase over time. In other cities with similar programs—like London and Stockholm—opposition was high before implementation, but support grew as the benefits became clear. If New York follows the same pattern, we could see more residents embracing the policy once they experience faster buses, less gridlock, and better-funded subway service.
Read the full analysis of the results here:
Looking ahead
My plan for the Third Avenue Institute is to continue regular polls on congestion pricing, and expand to other topics that matter to New Yorkers. I want to investigate sentiment on outdoor dining and subway safety. I care a lot about housing policy, and I'd love suggestions for specific research questions on that topic.
Polls are imperfect. People with stronger opinions are more likely to respond. In running the congestion pricing poll, I struggled with many of my survey invitation emails getting caught in spam filters. Some of these issues can be overcome with statistical weighting. But beyond the logistics, polls only tell us a snapshot of public sentiment, which can easily be influenced by charismatic leaders, news headlines, and external events.
Despite these challenges, frequent polls can provide politicians with a clearer picture of public sentiment, helping counterbalance the disproportionate influence of a small, highly engaged minority. If our city’s leaders want to serve their constituents effectively, they should be sure to pay attention to the data—not just to the people who show up at City Hall with the loudest voices.
One rare example of NYC-focused issue polling was Slingshot Strategies’ October 2024 poll on the City of Yes for Housing Opportunity land use reforms. This poll showed the public strongly supported these reforms, and I think was helpful to persuade city council members who may have been “on the fence” to vote in favor. Another consistent pollster is Siena College Research Institute, although their polls rarely dive deep into any specific topic.
This is awesome!
Awesome that you're going ahead with this. I was thinking of doing something similar myself, but it's quite another thing to actually do it, so good on you. Looking forward to seeing your findings!